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Mr Rogoff assured his audience that he was not trying to win the prize for gloomiest forecaster, and his sobering conclusions were not hotly disputed by delegates.

The gloomiest prophets are talking of a recession, But most predictions are for growth this year of 3-4%, if the power crisis is handled well.

But the golden goose is showing its age: North Sea production peaked in 1999 and has since been falling faster than all but the gloomiest foresaw (see chart 3).

The gloomiest estimates reckon that more than a thousand tiddlers will fail as a result of the crisis, many in 2010.

Yet the fallout from the scandal has not damaged the church as much as the gloomiest prophets foretold.

And while the UK remains among the gloomiest about the future, it suggests that Britons have coped with the crisis better than others, with lower levels of stress and anxiety.